Do We Need a Crystal Ball to Predict Employment Statistics? Yes!

Posted by Dana Fink, Director of Staffing at Glenmont Group

As “lifer” in the recruitment I have lived through thousands of employment reports in an effort to console myself through slow hiring periods or convince myself that the best is yet to come. Conflicting reports most recently have me perplexed however.  Last week’s dismal employment report sent the bankers on Wall Street running for the hills, gave political candidates more reason to attack their opponents, and left me with a sense of malaise.

The U.S. government reported that only 80,000 jobs were created in June, the third straight month of weak hiring.

The reluctance of U.S. employers to add jobs shows that the economy is still struggling three years after the recession officially ended. An average of just 75,000 jobs were created every month in the April-June quarter, far below the 226,000 created every month in the first three months of the year.

But in my inbox this morning I foundthe following news report to be more encouraging.  The employment market has always been cyclical. It just stinks to be on the losing end of a slow economy. I can say first hand, from my own pool of clients, that business is improving slightly. Clients are calling us with multiple openings but hiring slowly. So I read these reports with a grain of salt, consult my crystal ball and keep plugging along with my positive attitude.

HSZ Media’s Human Capital News Update delivers market intelligence to human capital business leaders seeking a competitive edge in the global war for talent. Our real time daily briefings and weekly Q&A’s track human capital news for subscribers seeking global talent management knowledge.
Today’s Headlines
Friday, July 13, 2012
  • EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK IMPROVING ACCORDING TO NEW STUDY While the jobs recovery continues to lag that of previous recessions, the outlook for the back half of 2012 shows continued improvement over 2011, according to CareerBuilder’s latest nationwide survey. Forty-four percent of private sector employers reported they are planning to hire full-time, permanent staff from July 1 through December 31, 2012, an increase of nine percentage points over the same period last year. In last year’s forecast, the number of companies planning to hire full-time, permanent employees (35 percent) increased seven percentage points over 2010. The nationwide survey, which was conducted by Harris Interactive from May 14, 2012 to June 4, 2012, included more than 2,000 hiring managers and human resource professionals across industries and company sizes. “The rate of job creation has been slower than what we would have expected at this point in the recovery, but the market is stable,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. “Two years ago, the hiring activity in the U.S. was driven primarily by large employers recruiting in metropolitan areas for a handful of industries or job functions. Today, we see job listings in all industries, market sizes and company sizes.” One-third (34 percent) of employers added full-time, permanent headcount in the second quarter, up from 29 percent last year and 33 percent last quarter. Nine percent decreased headcount while 56 percent made no change to staff levels and 1 percent were unsure. Looking ahead, 30 percent of employers plan to hire full-time, permanent employees in the third quarter, up from 26 percent last year.
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Glenmont Group is a boutique search firm that concentrates on Professional Services, with a focus in the Legal & Content space. Because we are a highly focused boutique firm, we offer expertise in the industry that other search firms cannot. Our staff has been trained on, employed in or consulted for these industries so there is no learning curve. This means that you will not see resumes off of "job boards" that seem to have little or no connection to the position you are trying to fill. In fact, just the opposite is true. Our process includes a competitive analysis that identifies the top candidates in your given field. At Glenmont Group, we strive to develop and maintain long-term professional relationships with our clients. We believe in a business relationship based on hard work, cooperation, integrity, trust and a sense of humor. We are also active members in our industries by working on or with the Executive board of our industry trade organizations such as; IQPC, EDRM, LMA, PMA, ALSM, ALA, AIIM, ARMA. This assures constant access to a network of those highest quality candidates who are involved in these organizations.

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Posted in Employment, Insights, Uncategorized

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